Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 16.225197 18.578259 21.326325 24.817725 29.202169 34.620004 4.197693e+01
2025-02-16 13.562948 16.502363 20.270267 25.607534 33.249024 44.286159 6.250630e+01
2025-02-23 11.779843 14.885143 19.109795 25.549713 35.681622 52.205277 8.450194e+01
2025-03-02 10.526692 13.679998 18.167279 25.413180 37.734040 60.088635 1.115190e+02
2025-03-09 9.687948 12.895722 17.642311 25.713148 40.470269 70.230743 1.520317e+02
2025-03-16 8.756062 11.843819 16.535204 24.803324 40.730929 75.525978 1.863591e+02
2025-03-23 8.164092 11.226195 16.007650 24.759985 42.606570 85.321518 2.489847e+02
2025-03-30 7.467502 10.374532 14.992876 23.654922 41.991773 88.724483 2.944932e+02
2025-04-06 6.827682 9.556870 13.947754 22.332876 40.591906 89.453223 3.310577e+02
2025-04-13 6.319404 8.909613 13.128290 21.328181 39.693341 91.355566 3.814145e+02
2025-04-20 6.433458 9.271468 14.070427 23.927744 48.103877 128.814384 8.904884e+02
2025-04-27 6.274405 9.164881 14.167875 24.812644 52.545012 157.289911 1.778556e+03
2025-05-04 5.839119 8.576847 13.361801 23.695566 51.331666 161.748221 2.419598e+03
2025-05-11 5.674938 8.442784 13.389868 24.451748 55.944271 200.930555 8.000108e+03
2025-05-18 5.432268 8.152241 13.088896 24.398126 58.072657 230.951496 3.519467e+04
2025-05-25 5.204379 7.871076 12.778195 24.270417 59.951767 263.980795 3.424185e+06
2025-06-01 5.038166 7.688092 12.642828 24.550996 63.434377 318.895014 NaN
2025-06-08 4.775731 7.314347 12.092242 23.699679 62.419413 333.134217 NaN
2025-06-15 4.610278 7.108286 11.866690 23.659105 64.607494 388.376752 NaN
2025-06-22 4.366973 6.745770 11.292450 22.623817 62.427549 388.977275 NaN
2025-06-29 4.120695 6.367425 10.664225 21.383422 59.113304 370.691296 NaN
2025-07-06 3.915384 6.057277 10.162286 20.439408 56.878442 365.060980 NaN
2025-07-13 4.010675 6.312243 10.863536 22.879541 70.583040 681.629578 NaN